REASONS FOR OPTIMISM IN THE MARKETS

Stocks are fizzling … but things could change this summer.

When was the last time the Dow took a six-week tumble? On June 10, the Dow dipped below 12,000 and posted its sixth straight weekly decline. You have to go back to October 2002 to find a Dow losing streak that long. If you’re hearing bearish groans in the distance, you’re not alone: the bears are making their voices heard as the Dow is down almost 7% from where it was at the end of April.1

June certainly has been tough on Wall Street, with the bulk of economic indicators flashing a slowdown. However, there is reason to think the third and fourth quarters of 2011 may be better for stocks – in fact, that’s what many analysts believe.

Q2 earnings projections are quite good. Investment research firm FactSet finds that despite the losing streak, aggregate Q2 S&P 500 earnings estimates are basically unchanged from late May. The collective forecast projects a 14.6% growth in earnings for the quarter and a 10.4% jump in revenues. (That double-digit revenue growth would be the best since Q1 2010.) As earnings are truly the mother’s milk of stocks, the market could heat up this summer if these collective predictions come true.2

Stocks are still cheap. On June 3, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio was 16.4 compared to 18.3 a year earlier. Most stocks look like a fair value right now.3

The economy is still growing. The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book and the twin PMI indices from the Institute for Supply Management both signal this. In fact, the ISM service sector index showed the growth of that sector accelerating in May.4

Homebuying could be poised to pick up. Sustained high unemployment isn’t going away this year, but some silver linings are emerging that bode well for the housing market. Moody’s Analytics says that the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% below the average ratio from 1985-2010. Mortgage interest rates are at levels unseen since the early 1960s. There are also indications that prices may be approaching a bottom in metro areas not rampant with short sales and foreclosures. Real estate analytics company CoreLogic found that home prices were down 7.5% year-over-year in April, but only down 0.5% when distressed sales were factored out.5

Hang in there. The bull market is maturing; QE2 is ending. We haven’t yet seen a correction, just a pullback. Mays and Junes have brought more than a few of those.


Citations.
1 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06/10/were-going-streaking/ [6/10/11]
2 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06/10/q2-earnings-and-revenue-estimates-remain-upbeat/ [6/10/11]
3 – smartmoney.com/invest/stocks/why-the-market-worrywarts-are-wrong-1307117379674/ [6/3/11]
4 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [6/3/11]
5 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576361522020024248.html [6/4/11]
6 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=money-and-happiness&category=29 [6/12/11]

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Protecting Customer Data and Your Computers (Part 1)

Savvy financial adviosors know that “bad things can happen” on the internet. As a trusted professional, you must take steps to safeguard your computers and your customer data [particularly their Non- Public Personal Information (“NPPI”)] from unauthorized access and potential loss. The SEC has mandated that for Registered Representatives and Registered Investment Advisors, establishing unique user accounts, using complex password protection and maintaining appropriate anti-virus software are all required computer protection procedures. Additionally, you must also maintain a “firewall” on all internet-connected computers. Simply put, without a firewall, your computers sit “naked” on the internet and are exposed to any potential threats.

Centaurus adds TD Ameritrade to Classic Plus Platform

Exclusively for Centaurus Representatives: TD Ameritrade Webinar Training

The Centaurus Wealth Management Department is pleased to announce that we have recently added TD Ameritrade as an Asset Based option on the CLASSIC Plus platform. Our upcoming webinar series will introduce Portfolio Rebalancing, and Infinita (A high net worth prospecting tool).

The relationship with TD Ameritrade brings more than just trading tools, it also brings great practice management and growth tools. To help educate you on the various services available, TD Ameritrade will be hosting training sessions exclusively for Centaurus representatives. Please mark your calendars and don’t miss out on this opportunity to learn how TD Ameritrade can enhance your practice and help you manage your client’s assets more effectively.

Centaurus Financial Offers Cutting-Edge Training for Newly-Independent Advisors

At Centaurus Financial, we strongly believe that our growth is your growth – our success is derived from our “organic growth” strategy which is driven by our industry-renowned Brokerage Design & Development (“BDD”) Quantum Leap Workshops.

While independent financial advisors are uniquely positioned to act in the best interests of the clients, you are also challenged with the responsibility of building and managing their own business. Centaurus understands this challenge and has created the most robust educational platform for independent financial advisors in the industry. While competitors spend most of their resources head-hunting for top branches and paying for those efforts in handsome sums, Centaurus has chosen to dedicate its valuable resources to an educational platform that turns good advisors into great advisors.

Centaurus Financial Partners with Albridge Solutions for Comprehensive Portfolio Management

Centaurus Financial is pleased to announce that we have recently partnered with Albridge Solutions to bring you their comprehensive portfolio management system, Albridge Wealth Reporting.

Albridge Wealth Reporting is a portfolio management system integrating portfolio accounting and performance reporting to deliver an accurate, single view of all of your clients’ assets. Albridge can consolidate client account data from hundreds of disparate sources/accounts to include proprietary, banking, brokerage, insurance, retirement, managed accounts, alternatives, and trusts.

Increase Business Efficiency & Productivity
By using Albridge Wealth Reporting, you can increase your productivity and deliver better service to your clients by spending less time managing client data and more time building relationships with them. Some key benefits of Albridge Wealth Reporting include:

Centaurus Financial Believes Independent Broker Dealers Provide a Superior Model of Service

The attainment of success for any reputable investment firm must always be measured by the success of its clients. Putting clients in a position to succeed with investing is challenging enough without the interference of in-house or proprietary pressures. That is why the independent broker dealer model provides a far superior platform than other models when it comes to partnering with clients to provide comprehensive financial solutions.

Who is Centaurus Financial?

Centaurus Financial (CFI) is a full-service independent broker dealer with a national presence licensed to offer insurance products and securities, such as stocks, bonds, mutual funds, separately managed accounts, annuities, alternative investments and wealth management services to the investing public. Centaurus is registered with the Securities & Exchange Commission and is a member of both FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) and SIPC (the Securities Investor Protection Corporation).

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